NAMBA March 2021 Web

PROPWASH March 2021 5 Masked Cough Plume with Folded Handkerchief Comparative Vaccine Chart The probability you are likely to contact someone in a group who is infectious depends on your location. Examples as of mid- February 2021 for a group of 20 are an 8% probability in Lane County, Oregon and a 21% probability in Los Angeles County, California. Click the link for other locations and group sizes. Map at https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ It takes time to get enough of the virus from an infected person to cause the disease. The virus particles also disperse with distance. The standard rules of thumb for an unprotected person are more than a 15-minute exposure at closer than 6 feet (2 meters). The infected person needs to be singing, talking, coughing, or sneezing to emit enough virus particles. The ultimate cure for this outbreak is immunization. Currently two vaccines are available in the US with several others in the pipeline. These first vaccines are well over 90% effective in preventing any infection and 100% effective in preventing serious infection requiring hospitalization. There have been almost no serious side effects beyond a sore arm. I and my staff have had the first shot with the second scheduled before the end of February. The chart above shows the effectiveness of the Covid immunizations compared to immunizations for polio and smallpox. Both of these latter immunizations eradicated their epidemics in the US. As of the middle of February around 55 million people have received immunizations. I know of a few serious, but non-fatal, reactions. Allergic reactions happen shortly after vaccination. Some very old and frail people in nursing homes have died after vaccination, but the relation to the vaccines is unclear. So far, we have had nearly ½ million deaths from Covid 19. That’s more Americans than in all wars combined excepting the Civil War’s around 750,000 deaths. With infected young people age 18 to 29 as a base, infected people 50 to 75 have a 4 to 5 times higher risk of hospitalization and a 30 to 90 times higher death rate. People over 75 are even more likely to be hospitalized or die. Vaccines are very, very much safer. However, it is un- known if these vaccines will prevent transmission of the disease or how long the immunity will last. These issues are the same for people who have recovered from the disease. By late summer it is expected that all US citizens who want to be immunized will be able to do so. Hopefully that will be enough for herd immunity, but we’ll see. Is it safe for us to pursue our hobby in 2021? I think it depends. Early in the year some areas of the country will have a very high rate of infection. See the web site noted above for your area. Outdoor gatherings will be safer than indoor gatherings. In both cases, most masks worn by an infected person will protect others. The most effective masks will protect you from infected people. If your locality has a low infection rate, I believe it will be safe to run boats outdoors with small groups of other local racers. I would be much more careful in events where a larger number of people come from a wide geographical area. By the time of the 2021 50th anniversary NAMBA Nationals it should be a lot safer, even at Legg Lake. This assumes that the participants have been immunized against Covid by then. This will be especially necessary at the various get togethers and the banquet. Even so, we may be required by California to wear masks. We’ll see. Until then please be careful. I’m looking forward to seeing all my old friends and meeting new people. NAMBA Nationals Race Entry Form If you have not noticed already, the 2021 NAMBA Nationals Race Entry Form is located right in the middle of the NAMBA Propwash. It is preceded by the NAMBA Contact List on page 9 and a full page advertisement on page 16. So that you do not have to cut out the pages, just go to pages 12 and 13 and bend back the staples to remove the race entry form. Fold the staples back down and you are good to go. The race entry form is also available at namba50nats.com web site where you can find much more information about the NAMBA Nationals including a store with memorabilia and collectibles.